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Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi — FA Cup 2018

Chonburi FC
Chonburi FC
FT
3 – 0
Suphanburi
Suphanburi
2/3/2021FA CupFA Cup · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chonburi FC60%
×Draw18%
Suphanburi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chonburi FC
2.69
Suphanburi
1.58

Chonburi FC creates 70% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Chonburi FC
3.70
Suphanburi
2.56

allows per match

Chonburi FC
0.60
Suphanburi
1.67

finishing

Chonburi FC+0.00on par
Suphanburi+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chonburi FC ↓

Suphanburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Chonburi FC or draw
78%
Chonburi FC or Suphanburi
82%
Draw or Suphanburi
40%

Winning margin

Chonburi FC wins by 2+
40%
Suphanburi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chonburi FC 1+ goals
93%
Chonburi FC 2+ goals
74%
Chonburi FC 3+ goals
49%
Suphanburi 1+ goals
79%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
47%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Chonburi FC (draw refunded)
74%
Suphanburi (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chonburi FC at home — creates 3.70, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Suphanburi away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chonburi FC attack 3.70 + Suphanburi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.69

Suphanburi attack 2.56 + Chonburi FC defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Chonburi FC scores more
60%
level
18%
Suphanburi scores more
22%

Chonburi FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Chonburi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chonburi FC vs Suphanburi

Chonburi FC beat Suphanburi 3-0 in FA Cup on February 3, 2021.