Suphanburi 2–3 Buriram United: Result & Stats

Suphanburi

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Buriram United

2/20/2021

League #296 · Round 21Suphanburi Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Suphanburi26%

×Draw24%

Buriram United50%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SuphanburiExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.76

Suphanburi

1.20

Buriram United

1.76

Buriram United creates 47% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 25 away

1.11

creates per match

2.08

1.44

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Suphanburi

1.11

Buriram United

2.08

allows per match

Suphanburi

1.44

Buriram United

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suphanburi+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suphanburi ↓

Buriram United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Suphanburi or draw

50%

Suphanburi or Buriram United

76%

Draw or Buriram United

74%

Winning margin

Suphanburi wins by 2+

10%

Buriram United wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Suphanburi 1+ goals

70%

Suphanburi 2+ goals

34%

Suphanburi 3+ goals

12%

Buriram United 1+ goals

83%

Buriram United 2+ goals

52%

Buriram United 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Suphanburi (draw refunded)

34%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suphanburi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Buriram United away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suphanburi attack 1.11 + Buriram United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Buriram United attack 2.08 + Suphanburi defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Suphanburi scores more

26%

level

24%

Buriram United scores more

50%

Buriram United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff