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Buriram United vs Suphanburi — League #296 2026

Buriram United
Buriram United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Suphanburi
Suphanburi
9/4/2021League #296League #296 · Round 1Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Buriram United70%
×Draw20%
Suphanburi10%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buriram United
1.89
Suphanburi
0.55

Buriram United creates 244% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 8 away

creates per match

Buriram United
2.40
Suphanburi
0.50

allows per match

Buriram United
0.60
Suphanburi
1.38

finishing

Buriram United+0.00on par
Suphanburi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buriram United ↓

Suphanburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Buriram United or draw
90%
Buriram United or Suphanburi
80%
Draw or Suphanburi
30%

Winning margin

Buriram United wins by 2+
43%
Suphanburi wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Buriram United 1+ goals
85%
Buriram United 2+ goals
56%
Buriram United 3+ goals
29%
Suphanburi 1+ goals
42%
Suphanburi 2+ goals
11%
Suphanburi 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Buriram United (draw refunded)
87%
Suphanburi (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buriram United at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Suphanburi away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buriram United attack 2.40 + Suphanburi defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.89

Suphanburi attack 0.50 + Buriram United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Buriram United scores more
70%
level
20%
Suphanburi scores more
10%

Buriram United at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buriram United vs Suphanburi

Buriram United and Suphanburi drew 0-0 in League #296 on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Chang Arena in Buriram.