Supersport United 1–0 Magesi: Result & Stats

Supersport United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Magesi

Bradley Grobler 80'

12/14/2024

Premier Soccer League · Round 8Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Supersport United52%

×Draw30%

Magesi17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Supersport UnitedExpected goals in this matchMagesi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.58

Supersport United

1.24

Magesi

0.58

Supersport United creates 114% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 31 away

1.25

creates per match

0.35

0.81

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Supersport United

1.25

Magesi

0.35

allows per match

Supersport United

0.81

Magesi

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Supersport United+0.00on par

Magesi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Supersport United ↓

Magesi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Supersport United or draw

83%

Supersport United or Magesi

70%

Draw or Magesi

48%

Winning margin

Supersport United wins by 2+

24%

Magesi wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Supersport United 1+ goals

71%

Supersport United 2+ goals

35%

Supersport United 3+ goals

13%

Magesi 1+ goals

44%

Magesi 2+ goals

12%

Magesi 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Supersport United (draw refunded)

75%

Magesi (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Supersport United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 105 matches

Magesi away — creates 0.35, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Supersport United attack 1.25 + Magesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Magesi attack 0.35 + Supersport United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Supersport United scores more

52%

level

30%

Magesi scores more

17%

Supersport United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Supersport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Elvis Chipezeze

Magesi · G

8.6

Match Events

64'

Terrence Dzvukamanja← Tashreeq Morris

78'

Siviwe Magidigidi← Ghampani Lungu

80'

Bradley Grobler↳ Terrence Dzvukamanja

83'

Rhulani Manzini← Edmore Chirambadare

83'

Kgaogelo Sekgota← Bafedile Baloyi

86'

Gape Moralo← Vincent Pule

86'

Eric Mbangossoum← Bradley Grobler

90+2'

Deolin Mekoa

90'

Clement Joseph Moshwana← Tshepo Kakora

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SupersportMagesi

Overview

56%Possession44%

19Total Shots10

8Corners3

18Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots10

8On Target3

7Off Target5

4Blocked2

13Inside Box3

6Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

398Total Passes319

307Accurate Passes228

77%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

18Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2