Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Magesi vs Supersport United — Premier Soccer League 2018

Magesi
Magesi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Supersport United
Supersport United
3/1/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 16Seshego Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Magesi37%
×Draw29%
Supersport United35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magesi
1.13
Supersport United
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 104 away

creates per match

Magesi
1.13
Supersport United
0.97

allows per match

Magesi
1.22
Supersport United
1.13

finishing

Magesi+0.00on par
Supersport United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magesi ↓

Supersport United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Magesi or draw
65%
Magesi or Supersport United
71%
Draw or Supersport United
63%

Winning margin

Magesi wins by 2+
15%
Supersport United wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Magesi 1+ goals
68%
Magesi 2+ goals
31%
Magesi 3+ goals
11%
Supersport United 1+ goals
66%
Supersport United 2+ goals
30%
Supersport United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Magesi (draw refunded)
51%
Supersport United (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magesi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Supersport United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.13 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magesi attack 1.13 + Supersport United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Supersport United attack 0.97 + Magesi defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Magesi scores more
37%
level
29%
Supersport United scores more
35%

Magesi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Magesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Magesi 1–0 Supersport United

Magesi beat Supersport United 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Seshego Stadium in Polokwane.