Supersport United 2–1 Bloem Celtic: Result & Stats

Supersport United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Bloem Celtic

1/13/2021

Premier Soccer League · Round 8Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Supersport United47%

×Draw28%

Bloem Celtic25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Supersport UnitedExpected goals in this matchBloem Celtic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.92

Supersport United

1.36

Bloem Celtic

0.92

Supersport United creates 48% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 45 away

1.25

creates per match

1.02

0.81

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Supersport United

1.25

Bloem Celtic

1.02

allows per match

Supersport United

0.81

Bloem Celtic

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Supersport United+0.00on par

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Supersport United ↓

Bloem Celtic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Supersport United or draw

75%

Supersport United or Bloem Celtic

72%

Draw or Bloem Celtic

53%

Winning margin

Supersport United wins by 2+

22%

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Supersport United 1+ goals

74%

Supersport United 2+ goals

39%

Supersport United 3+ goals

16%

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals

60%

Bloem Celtic 2+ goals

23%

Bloem Celtic 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Supersport United (draw refunded)

65%

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Supersport United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.81 · 105 matches

Bloem Celtic away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Supersport United attack 1.25 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bloem Celtic attack 1.02 + Supersport United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Supersport United scores more

47%

level

28%

Bloem Celtic scores more

25%

Supersport United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Supersport United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff