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Bloem Celtic vs Supersport United — Premier Soccer League 2018

Bloem Celtic
Bloem Celtic
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Supersport United
Supersport United
2/9/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 12Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bloem Celtic42%
×Draw29%
Supersport United29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bloem Celtic
1.25
Supersport United
0.98

Bloem Celtic creates 28% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 104 away

creates per match

Bloem Celtic
1.38
Supersport United
0.97

allows per match

Bloem Celtic
1.00
Supersport United
1.13

finishing

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par
Supersport United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bloem Celtic ↓

Supersport United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bloem Celtic or draw
71%
Bloem Celtic or Supersport United
71%
Draw or Supersport United
58%

Winning margin

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+
19%
Supersport United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals
71%
Bloem Celtic 2+ goals
36%
Bloem Celtic 3+ goals
13%
Supersport United 1+ goals
62%
Supersport United 2+ goals
26%
Supersport United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)
59%
Supersport United (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bloem Celtic at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Supersport United away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.13 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bloem Celtic attack 1.38 + Supersport United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Supersport United attack 0.97 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bloem Celtic scores more
42%
level
29%
Supersport United scores more
29%

Bloem Celtic at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bloem Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bloem Celtic vs Supersport United

Bloem Celtic beat Supersport United 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on February 9, 2021.

The match was played at Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium in Bloemfontein, FS.