Super Nova 5–1 Balvu: Result & Stats | 1. Liga

Super Nova

FT

5 – 1

Balvu

9/7/2019

1. Liga · Round 18Olaines stadions (Olaine)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Super Nova92%

×Draw5%

Balvu3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Super NovaExpected goals in this matchBalvu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

5.03

0.92

Super Nova

5.03

Balvu

0.92

Super Nova creates 447% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 16 away

2.86

creates per match

0.94

0.90

allows per match

7.19

creates per match

Super Nova

2.86

Balvu

0.94

allows per match

Super Nova

0.90

Balvu

7.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Super Nova+0.00on par

Balvu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Super Nova ↓

Balvu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 57% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

79%21%4.5

61%39%

Double chance

Super Nova or draw

97%

Super Nova or Balvu

95%

Draw or Balvu

8%

Winning margin

Super Nova wins by 2+

82%

Balvu wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Super Nova 1+ goals

99%

Super Nova 2+ goals

95%

Super Nova 3+ goals

84%

Balvu 1+ goals

60%

Balvu 2+ goals

23%

Balvu 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Super Nova (draw refunded)

97%

Balvu (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Super Nova at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.90 · 42 matches

Balvu away — creates 0.94, concedes 7.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Super Nova attack 2.86 + Balvu defence 7.19 → ÷2 → 5.03

Balvu attack 0.94 + Super Nova defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Super Nova scores more

92%

level

5%

Balvu scores more

3%

Super Nova at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Super Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff