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Balvu vs Super Nova — 1. Liga 2026

Balvu
Balvu
FT
0 – 2
Super Nova
Super Nova
11/10/20191. Liga1. Liga · Round 27Gulbenes pilsētas stadions (Gulbene)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Balvu8%
×Draw12%
Super Nova80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balvu
0.94
Super Nova
3.21

Super Nova creates 241% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 39 away

creates per match

Balvu
0.73
Super Nova
2.49

allows per match

Balvu
3.93
Super Nova
1.15

finishing

Balvu+0.00on par
Super Nova+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balvu ↓

Super Nova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–29%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Balvu or draw
20%
Balvu or Super Nova
88%
Draw or Super Nova
92%

Winning margin

Balvu wins by 2+
2%
Super Nova wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

Balvu 1+ goals
61%
Balvu 2+ goals
24%
Balvu 3+ goals
7%
Super Nova 1+ goals
96%
Super Nova 2+ goals
82%
Super Nova 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Balvu (draw refunded)
9%
Super Nova (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balvu at home — creates 0.73, concedes 3.93 · 15 matches

Super Nova away — creates 2.49, concedes 1.15 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balvu attack 0.73 + Super Nova defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.94

Super Nova attack 2.49 + Balvu defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Balvu scores more
8%
level
12%
Super Nova scores more
80%

Super Nova at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Super Nova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balvu vs Super Nova

Super Nova beat Balvu 2-0 in 1. Liga on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Gulbenes pilsētas stadions (Gulbene).