Sunshine Stars 1–0 Sporting Lagos: Result & Stats

Sunshine Stars

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting Lagos

11/26/2023

NPFL · Round 10Akure Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sunshine Stars61%

×Draw26%

Sporting Lagos13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sunshine StarsExpected goals in this matchSporting Lagos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.53

Sunshine Stars

1.48

Sporting Lagos

0.53

Sunshine Stars creates 179% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

1.33

creates per match

0.42

0.63

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Sunshine Stars

1.33

Sporting Lagos

0.42

allows per match

Sunshine Stars

0.63

Sporting Lagos

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Sporting Lagos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Stars ↓

Sporting Lagos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sunshine Stars or draw

87%

Sunshine Stars or Sporting Lagos

74%

Draw or Sporting Lagos

39%

Winning margin

Sunshine Stars wins by 2+

32%

Sporting Lagos wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sunshine Stars 1+ goals

77%

Sunshine Stars 2+ goals

43%

Sunshine Stars 3+ goals

19%

Sporting Lagos 1+ goals

41%

Sporting Lagos 2+ goals

10%

Sporting Lagos 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)

82%

Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.63 · 112 matches

Sporting Lagos away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Stars attack 1.33 + Sporting Lagos defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sporting Lagos attack 0.42 + Sunshine Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sunshine Stars scores more

61%

level

26%

Sporting Lagos scores more

13%

Sunshine Stars at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sunshine Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff