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Sporting Lagos vs Sunshine Stars — NPFL 2019

Sporting Lagos
Sporting Lagos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
P. Durugbor 9'
4/16/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 30Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sporting Lagos61%
×Draw26%
Sunshine Stars14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Lagos
1.53
Sunshine Stars
0.58

Sporting Lagos creates 164% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 110 away

creates per match

Sporting Lagos
1.63
Sunshine Stars
0.48

allows per match

Sporting Lagos
0.68
Sunshine Stars
1.44

finishing

Sporting Lagos+0.00on par
Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Lagos ↓

Sunshine Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sporting Lagos or draw
86%
Sporting Lagos or Sunshine Stars
74%
Draw or Sunshine Stars
39%

Winning margin

Sporting Lagos wins by 2+
32%
Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sporting Lagos 1+ goals
78%
Sporting Lagos 2+ goals
45%
Sporting Lagos 3+ goals
20%
Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
44%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
12%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sporting Lagos (draw refunded)
81%
Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Lagos at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Lagos attack 1.63 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sunshine Stars attack 0.48 + Sporting Lagos defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sporting Lagos scores more
61%
level
26%
Sunshine Stars scores more
14%

Sporting Lagos at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sporting Lagos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
P. Durugbor

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Lagos vs Sunshine Stars

Sporting Lagos beat Sunshine Stars 1-0 in NPFL on April 16, 2024.

Goals: P. Durugbor (9').

The match was played at Mobolaji Johnson Arena in Lagos.