Sunshine Stars 1–1 Kwara United: Result & Stats

Sunshine Stars

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kwara United

2/18/2024

NPFL · Round 20Akure Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Sunshine Stars58%

×Draw27%

Kwara United15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sunshine StarsExpected goals in this matchKwara United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.60

Sunshine Stars

1.44

Kwara United

0.60

Sunshine Stars creates 140% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 128 away

1.33

creates per match

0.58

0.63

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Sunshine Stars

1.33

Kwara United

0.58

allows per match

Sunshine Stars

0.63

Kwara United

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Kwara United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Stars ↓

Kwara United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sunshine Stars or draw

85%

Sunshine Stars or Kwara United

73%

Draw or Kwara United

42%

Winning margin

Sunshine Stars wins by 2+

30%

Kwara United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sunshine Stars 1+ goals

76%

Sunshine Stars 2+ goals

42%

Sunshine Stars 3+ goals

18%

Kwara United 1+ goals

45%

Kwara United 2+ goals

12%

Kwara United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)

79%

Kwara United (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.63 · 112 matches

Kwara United away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Stars attack 1.33 + Kwara United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kwara United attack 0.58 + Sunshine Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sunshine Stars scores more

58%

level

27%

Kwara United scores more

15%

Sunshine Stars at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sunshine Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff