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Kwara United vs Sunshine Stars — NPFL 2019

Kwara United
Kwara United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
10/16/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 7Kwara Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Kwara United61%
×Draw27%
Sunshine Stars12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kwara United
1.42
Sunshine Stars
0.46

Kwara United creates 209% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 110 away

creates per match

Kwara United
1.39
Sunshine Stars
0.48

allows per match

Kwara United
0.45
Sunshine Stars
1.44

finishing

Kwara United+0.00on par
Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwara United ↓

Sunshine Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kwara United or draw
88%
Kwara United or Sunshine Stars
73%
Draw or Sunshine Stars
39%

Winning margin

Kwara United wins by 2+
32%
Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kwara United 1+ goals
76%
Kwara United 2+ goals
41%
Kwara United 3+ goals
17%
Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
37%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
8%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Kwara United (draw refunded)
84%
Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwara United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.45 · 127 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwara United attack 1.39 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sunshine Stars attack 0.48 + Kwara United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kwara United scores more
61%
level
27%
Sunshine Stars scores more
12%

Kwara United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kwara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kwara United vs Sunshine Stars

Kwara United beat Sunshine Stars 3-0 in NPFL on October 16, 2024.

The match was played at Kwara Sports Complex in Ilorin.