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Sunshine Stars vs Jigawa Golden Stars — NPFL 2019

Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jigawa Golden Stars
Jigawa Golden Stars
5/16/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 21Akure Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sunshine Stars63%
×Draw24%
Jigawa Golden Stars13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunshine Stars
1.65
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.59

Sunshine Stars creates 180% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 31 away

creates per match

Sunshine Stars
1.33
Jigawa Golden Stars
0.55

allows per match

Sunshine Stars
0.63
Jigawa Golden Stars
1.97

finishing

Sunshine Stars+0.00on par
Jigawa Golden Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Stars ↓

Jigawa Golden Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sunshine Stars or draw
87%
Sunshine Stars or Jigawa Golden Stars
76%
Draw or Jigawa Golden Stars
37%

Winning margin

Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
36%
Jigawa Golden Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
81%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
49%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
23%
Jigawa Golden Stars 1+ goals
45%
Jigawa Golden Stars 2+ goals
12%
Jigawa Golden Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
83%
Jigawa Golden Stars (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.63 · 112 matches

Jigawa Golden Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Stars attack 1.33 + Jigawa Golden Stars defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.65

Jigawa Golden Stars attack 0.55 + Sunshine Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sunshine Stars scores more
63%
level
24%
Jigawa Golden Stars scores more
13%

Sunshine Stars at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sunshine Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Sunshine Stars 0–0 Jigawa Golden Stars

Sunshine Stars and Jigawa Golden Stars drew 0-0 in NPFL on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Akure Township Stadium in Akure.