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Jigawa Golden Stars vs Sunshine Stars — NPFL 2019

Jigawa Golden Stars
Jigawa Golden Stars
CANC
00:00
Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
4/26/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 33Hadejia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Jigawa Golden Stars55%
×Draw29%
Sunshine Stars16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jigawa Golden Stars
1.30
Sunshine Stars
0.55

Jigawa Golden Stars creates 136% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

creates per match

Jigawa Golden Stars
1.16
Sunshine Stars
0.48

allows per match

Jigawa Golden Stars
0.63
Sunshine Stars
1.44

finishing

Jigawa Golden Stars+0.00on par
Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jigawa Golden Stars ↓

Sunshine Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Jigawa Golden Stars or draw
84%
Jigawa Golden Stars or Sunshine Stars
71%
Draw or Sunshine Stars
45%

Winning margin

Jigawa Golden Stars wins by 2+
26%
Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jigawa Golden Stars 1+ goals
73%
Jigawa Golden Stars 2+ goals
37%
Jigawa Golden Stars 3+ goals
14%
Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
42%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
11%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Jigawa Golden Stars (draw refunded)
78%
Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jigawa Golden Stars at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.63 · 32 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jigawa Golden Stars attack 1.16 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sunshine Stars attack 0.48 + Jigawa Golden Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jigawa Golden Stars scores more
55%
level
29%
Sunshine Stars scores more
16%

Jigawa Golden Stars at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jigawa Golden Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jigawa Golden Stars vs Sunshine Stars — Match Preview

Jigawa Golden Stars face Sunshine Stars on April 26, 2020 in this NPFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jigawa Golden Stars host Sunshine Stars at Hadejia Township Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.