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Sunshine Stars vs Ifeanyi Uba — NPFL 2019

Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
FT
2 – 0
Ifeanyi Uba
Ifeanyi Uba
2/9/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 19Akure Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sunshine Stars61%
×Draw25%
Ifeanyi Uba14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunshine Stars
1.56
Ifeanyi Uba
0.60

Sunshine Stars creates 160% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 46 away

creates per match

Sunshine Stars
1.33
Ifeanyi Uba
0.57

allows per match

Sunshine Stars
0.63
Ifeanyi Uba
1.78

finishing

Sunshine Stars+0.00on par
Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Stars ↓

Ifeanyi Uba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sunshine Stars or draw
86%
Sunshine Stars or Ifeanyi Uba
75%
Draw or Ifeanyi Uba
39%

Winning margin

Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
33%
Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
79%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
46%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
21%
Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals
45%
Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals
12%
Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
81%
Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.63 · 112 matches

Ifeanyi Uba away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Stars attack 1.33 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ifeanyi Uba attack 0.57 + Sunshine Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sunshine Stars scores more
61%
level
25%
Ifeanyi Uba scores more
14%

Sunshine Stars at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sunshine Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Sunshine Stars 2–0 Ifeanyi Uba

Sunshine Stars beat Ifeanyi Uba 2-0 in NPFL on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Akure Township Stadium in Akure.