Ifeanyi Uba 1–0 Sunshine Stars: Result & Stats

Ifeanyi Uba

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sunshine Stars

5/23/2021

NPFL · Round 22Ifeanyi Ubah FC International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ifeanyi Uba56%

×Draw28%

Sunshine Stars16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ifeanyi UbaExpected goals in this matchSunshine Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.57

Ifeanyi Uba

1.35

Sunshine Stars

0.57

Ifeanyi Uba creates 137% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 110 away

1.27

creates per match

0.48

0.66

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Ifeanyi Uba

1.27

Sunshine Stars

0.48

allows per match

Ifeanyi Uba

0.66

Sunshine Stars

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ifeanyi Uba+0.00on par

Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ifeanyi Uba ↓

Sunshine Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ifeanyi Uba or draw

84%

Ifeanyi Uba or Sunshine Stars

72%

Draw or Sunshine Stars

44%

Winning margin

Ifeanyi Uba wins by 2+

28%

Sunshine Stars wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ifeanyi Uba 1+ goals

74%

Ifeanyi Uba 2+ goals

39%

Ifeanyi Uba 3+ goals

15%

Sunshine Stars 1+ goals

43%

Sunshine Stars 2+ goals

11%

Sunshine Stars 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Ifeanyi Uba (draw refunded)

78%

Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ifeanyi Uba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ifeanyi Uba attack 1.27 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sunshine Stars attack 0.48 + Ifeanyi Uba defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ifeanyi Uba scores more

56%

level

28%

Sunshine Stars scores more

16%

Ifeanyi Uba at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ifeanyi Uba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff