Sunshine Georgies 0–1 Bulleen Lions: Result & Stats

Sunshine Georgies

FT

0 – 1

Bulleen Lions

3/9/2024

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 5City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sunshine Georgies57%

×Draw21%

Bulleen Lions22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sunshine GeorgiesExpected goals in this matchBulleen Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.29

Sunshine Georgies

2.16

Bulleen Lions

1.29

Sunshine Georgies creates 67% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 66 away

2.62

creates per match

1.24

1.35

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Sunshine Georgies

2.62

Bulleen Lions

1.24

allows per match

Sunshine Georgies

1.35

Bulleen Lions

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunshine Georgies+0.00on par

Bulleen Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Georgies ↓

Bulleen Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sunshine Georgies or draw

78%

Sunshine Georgies or Bulleen Lions

79%

Draw or Bulleen Lions

43%

Winning margin

Sunshine Georgies wins by 2+

35%

Bulleen Lions wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sunshine Georgies 1+ goals

88%

Sunshine Georgies 2+ goals

63%

Sunshine Georgies 3+ goals

36%

Bulleen Lions 1+ goals

72%

Bulleen Lions 2+ goals

37%

Bulleen Lions 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Georgies (draw refunded)

72%

Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Georgies at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Bulleen Lions away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Georgies attack 2.62 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.16

Bulleen Lions attack 1.24 + Sunshine Georgies defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sunshine Georgies scores more

57%

level

21%

Bulleen Lions scores more

22%

Sunshine Georgies at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sunshine Georgies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff