Bulleen Lions 3–1 Sunshine Georgies: Result & Stats

Bulleen Lions

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sunshine Georgies

Y. Gandhi 90+4'

M. A. Kurita 75'

D. Menelaou 25'

L. Reus 45'

2/24/2025

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 3David Barro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bulleen Lions41%

×Draw23%

Sunshine Georgies36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bulleen LionsExpected goals in this matchSunshine Georgies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.61

Bulleen Lions

1.73

Sunshine Georgies

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 26 away

1.97

creates per match

1.85

1.37

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bulleen Lions

1.97

Sunshine Georgies

1.85

allows per match

Bulleen Lions

1.37

Sunshine Georgies

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulleen Lions+0.00on par

Sunshine Georgies+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulleen Lions ↓

Sunshine Georgies →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bulleen Lions or draw

64%

Bulleen Lions or Sunshine Georgies

77%

Draw or Sunshine Georgies

59%

Winning margin

Bulleen Lions wins by 2+

21%

Sunshine Georgies wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bulleen Lions 1+ goals

82%

Bulleen Lions 2+ goals

52%

Bulleen Lions 3+ goals

25%

Sunshine Georgies 1+ goals

80%

Sunshine Georgies 2+ goals

48%

Sunshine Georgies 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)

53%

Sunshine Georgies (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulleen Lions at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Sunshine Georgies away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulleen Lions attack 1.97 + Sunshine Georgies defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sunshine Georgies attack 1.85 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bulleen Lions scores more

41%

level

23%

Sunshine Georgies scores more

36%

Bulleen Lions at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bulleen Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

D. Menelaou

45'

L. Reus

75'

M. A. Kurita

90+4'

Y. Gandhi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff