Sunrise 0–0 Rutsiro: Result & Stats

Sunrise

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rutsiro

10/29/2022

National Soccer League · Round 7Muvumba Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sunrise46%

×Draw27%

Rutsiro27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunriseExpected goals in this matchRutsiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.02

Sunrise

1.40

Rutsiro

1.02

Sunrise creates 37% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 69 away

1.49

creates per match

0.87

1.18

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Sunrise

1.49

Rutsiro

0.87

allows per match

Sunrise

1.18

Rutsiro

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunrise+0.00on par

Rutsiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunrise ↓

Rutsiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sunrise or draw

73%

Sunrise or Rutsiro

73%

Draw or Rutsiro

54%

Winning margin

Sunrise wins by 2+

22%

Rutsiro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sunrise 1+ goals

75%

Sunrise 2+ goals

41%

Sunrise 3+ goals

17%

Rutsiro 1+ goals

64%

Rutsiro 2+ goals

27%

Rutsiro 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sunrise (draw refunded)

62%

Rutsiro (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunrise at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.18 · 49 matches

Rutsiro away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.30 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunrise attack 1.49 + Rutsiro defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Rutsiro attack 0.87 + Sunrise defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sunrise scores more

46%

level

27%

Rutsiro scores more

27%

Sunrise at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sunrise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff