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Rutsiro vs Sunrise — National Soccer League 2019

Rutsiro
Rutsiro
CANC
13:00
Sunrise
Sunrise
2/21/2021National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 12Stade Umuganda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rutsiro37%
×Draw29%
Sunrise34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rutsiro
1.17
Sunrise
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

creates per match

Rutsiro
0.91
Sunrise
0.98

allows per match

Rutsiro
1.23
Sunrise
1.43

finishing

Rutsiro+0.00on par
Sunrise+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rutsiro ↓

Sunrise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rutsiro or draw
66%
Rutsiro or Sunrise
71%
Draw or Sunrise
63%

Winning margin

Rutsiro wins by 2+
16%
Sunrise wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rutsiro 1+ goals
69%
Rutsiro 2+ goals
33%
Rutsiro 3+ goals
11%
Sunrise 1+ goals
67%
Sunrise 2+ goals
30%
Sunrise 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rutsiro (draw refunded)
52%
Sunrise (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rutsiro at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

Sunrise away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rutsiro attack 0.91 + Sunrise defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sunrise attack 0.98 + Rutsiro defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rutsiro scores more
37%
level
29%
Sunrise scores more
34%

Rutsiro at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rutsiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rutsiro face Sunrise (National Soccer League)

National Soccer League returns with Rutsiro hosting Sunrise. Match starts February 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rutsiro host Sunrise at Stade Umuganda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.