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Sunrise vs APR — National Soccer League 2019

Sunrise
Sunrise
FT
0 – 1
APR
APR
11/29/2023National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 5Muvumba Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Sunrise30%
×Draw27%
APR43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunrise
1.07
APR
1.33

APR creates 24% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 94 away

creates per match

Sunrise
1.49
APR
1.49

allows per match

Sunrise
1.18
APR
0.66

finishing

Sunrise+0.00on par
APR+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunrise ↓

APR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sunrise or draw
57%
Sunrise or APR
73%
Draw or APR
70%

Winning margin

Sunrise wins by 2+
12%
APR wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sunrise 1+ goals
66%
Sunrise 2+ goals
29%
Sunrise 3+ goals
9%
APR 1+ goals
74%
APR 2+ goals
38%
APR 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sunrise (draw refunded)
41%
APR (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunrise at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.18 · 49 matches

APR away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.66 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunrise attack 1.49 + APR defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.07

APR attack 1.49 + Sunrise defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sunrise scores more
30%
level
27%
APR scores more
43%

APR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "APR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Sunrise 0–1 APR

APR beat Sunrise 1-0 in National Soccer League on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Muvumba Ground in Nyagatare.