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APR vs Sunrise — National Soccer League 2019

APR
APR
FT
3 – 2
Sunrise
Sunrise
11/13/2022National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 9Stade Régional de Nyamirambo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

APR57%
×Draw25%
Sunrise18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APR
1.62
Sunrise
0.78

APR creates 108% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 51 away

creates per match

APR
1.81
Sunrise
0.98

allows per match

APR
0.58
Sunrise
1.43

finishing

APR+0.00on par
Sunrise+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APR ↓

Sunrise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

APR or draw
82%
APR or Sunrise
75%
Draw or Sunrise
43%

Winning margin

APR wins by 2+
31%
Sunrise wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

APR 1+ goals
80%
APR 2+ goals
48%
APR 3+ goals
22%
Sunrise 1+ goals
54%
Sunrise 2+ goals
18%
Sunrise 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

APR (draw refunded)
76%
Sunrise (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APR at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.58 · 97 matches

Sunrise away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APR attack 1.81 + Sunrise defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.62

Sunrise attack 0.98 + APR defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

APR scores more
57%
level
25%
Sunrise scores more
18%

APR at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "APR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

APR 3 – 2 Sunrise

APR beat Sunrise 3-2 in National Soccer League on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Régional de Nyamirambo in Kigali.