Sundsvall W 2–4 Eskilstuna United W: Result & Stats

Sundsvall W

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Eskilstuna United W

E. Larsson 55'

S. Mirr 40'

A. Larsson 67', 33' (pen)

L. Hallin 61'

N. Robertson 51'

9/28/2024

Elitettan · Round 21NP3 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sundsvall W30%

×Draw24%

Eskilstuna United W47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sundsvall WExpected goals in this matchEskilstuna United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.73

Sundsvall W

1.34

Eskilstuna United W

1.73

Eskilstuna United W creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 39 away

0.92

creates per match

1.82

1.63

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Sundsvall W

0.92

Eskilstuna United W

1.82

allows per match

Sundsvall W

1.63

Eskilstuna United W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sundsvall W+0.00on par

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sundsvall W ↓

Eskilstuna United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sundsvall W or draw

53%

Sundsvall W or Eskilstuna United W

76%

Draw or Eskilstuna United W

70%

Winning margin

Sundsvall W wins by 2+

13%

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Sundsvall W 1+ goals

74%

Sundsvall W 2+ goals

39%

Sundsvall W 3+ goals

15%

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

82%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

52%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Sundsvall W (draw refunded)

39%

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sundsvall W at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

Eskilstuna United W away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sundsvall W attack 0.92 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.34

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.82 + Sundsvall W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sundsvall W scores more

30%

level

24%

Eskilstuna United W scores more

47%

Eskilstuna United W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

M. Eriholm← L. Özdemir

33'

A. LarssonPenalty

34'

I. Akerlund

40'

51'

55'

61'

67'

71'

81'

C. Rugumaho← T. Lindqvist

81'

E. Tillenius← C. Eriksson

86'

J. Langorgen

Sundsvall

Eskilstuna

⚽

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: P. Nylund

71'▲E. Orji←▼E. Näsman

81'▲C. Rugumaho←▼T. Lindqvist

Sundsvall W substitutes

OrjiRugumahoWinterHafstad

Manager: V. Barsley

31'▲M. Eriholm←▼L. Özdemir

81'▲E. Tillenius←▼C. Eriksson

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

EriholmTilleniusWiklundBülowSellingHämäläinenYouhana

Elitettan: Sundsvall W 2–4 Eskilstuna United W

Eskilstuna United W beat Sundsvall W 4-2 in Elitettan on September 28, 2024.

Goals: A. Larsson (33' pen, 67'), S. Mirr (40'), N. Robertson (51'), E. Larsson (55'), L. Hallin (61').

The match was played at NP3 Arena in Sundsvall.

Sundsvall W vs Eskilstuna United W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Elitettan: Sundsvall W 2–4 Eskilstuna United W