Eskilstuna United W 0–1 Sundsvall W: Result & Stats

Eskilstuna United W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sundsvall W

E. Orji 87'

10/14/2023

Elitettan · Round 23Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Eskilstuna United W61%

×Draw22%

Sundsvall W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eskilstuna United WExpected goals in this matchSundsvall W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.96

Eskilstuna United W

1.96

Sundsvall W

0.96

Eskilstuna United W creates 104% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 52 away

1.85

creates per match

1.00

0.92

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Eskilstuna United W

1.85

Sundsvall W

1.00

allows per match

Eskilstuna United W

0.92

Sundsvall W

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Sundsvall W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilstuna United W ↓

Sundsvall W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Eskilstuna United W or draw

82%

Eskilstuna United W or Sundsvall W

78%

Draw or Sundsvall W

39%

Winning margin

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

36%

Sundsvall W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

86%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

58%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

31%

Sundsvall W 1+ goals

62%

Sundsvall W 2+ goals

25%

Sundsvall W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

77%

Sundsvall W (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilstuna United W at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

Sundsvall W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.85 + Sundsvall W defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.96

Sundsvall W attack 1.00 + Eskilstuna United W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Eskilstuna United W scores more

61%

level

22%

Sundsvall W scores more

18%

Eskilstuna United W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

T. Wärulf← E. Boije

64'

K. Collin← A. Vigholm

65'

E. Tillenius← A. Benediktsson

87'

E. Orji

90+2'

C. Eriksson← J. Miclat

90+1'

S. Dahl Forslund← I. Åkerlund

90+3'

N. Fernström← E. Orji

Eskilstuna

Sundsvall

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Barsley

64'▲K. Collin←▼A. Vigholm

65'▲E. Tillenius←▼A. Benediktsson

90+2'▲C. Eriksson←▼J. Miclat

90+1'▲S. Dahl Forslund←▼I. Åkerlund

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

CollinTilleniusErikssonForslundWallmarkYouhanaDelerud

Manager: P. Nylund

51'▲T. Wärulf←▼E. Boije

90+3'▲N. Fernström←▼E. Orji

Sundsvall W substitutes

WärulfFernströmIsraelssonLarssonForsbergRugumaho