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Sunderland W vs Manchester United W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Sunderland W
Sunderland W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Manchester United W
Manchester United W
1/29/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundEppleton Colliery Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sunderland W33%
×Draw22%
Manchester United W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland W
1.63
Manchester United W
1.96

Manchester United W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sunderland W
2.56
Manchester United W
2.80

allows per match

Sunderland W
1.11
Manchester United W
0.70

finishing

Sunderland W+0.00on par
Manchester United W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland W ↓

Manchester United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sunderland W or draw
54%
Sunderland W or Manchester United W
78%
Draw or Manchester United W
67%

Winning margin

Sunderland W wins by 2+
16%
Manchester United W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sunderland W 1+ goals
80%
Sunderland W 2+ goals
48%
Sunderland W 3+ goals
22%
Manchester United W 1+ goals
86%
Manchester United W 2+ goals
58%
Manchester United W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Sunderland W (draw refunded)
42%
Manchester United W (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland W at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Manchester United W away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland W attack 2.56 + Manchester United W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.63

Manchester United W attack 2.80 + Sunderland W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sunderland W scores more
33%
level
22%
Manchester United W scores more
46%

Manchester United W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Sunderland W 1–2 Manchester United W

Manchester United W beat Sunderland W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Eppleton Colliery Football Ground in Hetton-le-Hole, Tyne and Wear.