Manchester United W 3–1 Sunderland W

Manchester United W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Sunderland W

3/8/2025

FA Women's Cup · Quarter-finalsLeigh Sports Village Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Manchester United W41%

×Draw20%

Sunderland W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester United WExpected goals in this matchSunderland W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

2.13

Manchester United W

2.21

Sunderland W

2.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

3.55

creates per match

3.00

1.27

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Manchester United W

3.55

Sunderland W

3.00

allows per match

Manchester United W

1.27

Sunderland W

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester United W+0.00on par

Sunderland W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester United W ↓

Sunderland W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Manchester United W or draw

61%

Manchester United W or Sunderland W

80%

Draw or Sunderland W

59%

Winning margin

Manchester United W wins by 2+

24%

Sunderland W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Manchester United W 1+ goals

89%

Manchester United W 2+ goals

65%

Manchester United W 3+ goals

38%

Sunderland W 1+ goals

88%

Sunderland W 2+ goals

63%

Sunderland W 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Manchester United W (draw refunded)

52%

Sunderland W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester United W at home — creates 3.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Sunderland W away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester United W attack 3.55 + Sunderland W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 2.21

Sunderland W attack 3.00 + Manchester United W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Manchester United W scores more

41%

level

20%

Sunderland W scores more

39%

Manchester United W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Manchester United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Manchester United W 3–1 Sunderland W

Manchester United W beat Sunderland W 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Leigh Sports Village Stadium in Leigh, Greater Manchester.

Manchester United W vs Sunderland W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Women's Cup: Manchester United W 3–1 Sunderland W