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Sunderland W vs Birmingham City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Sunderland W
Sunderland W
FT
0 – 1
Birmingham City W
Birmingham City W
2/16/2020FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 5th RoundEppleton Colliery Football Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sunderland W49%
×Draw22%
Birmingham City W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland W
2.00
Birmingham City W
1.50

Sunderland W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sunderland W
2.56
Birmingham City W
1.89

allows per match

Sunderland W
1.11
Birmingham City W
1.44

finishing

Sunderland W+0.00on par
Birmingham City W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland W ↓

Birmingham City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sunderland W or draw
71%
Sunderland W or Birmingham City W
78%
Draw or Birmingham City W
51%

Winning margin

Sunderland W wins by 2+
28%
Birmingham City W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sunderland W 1+ goals
86%
Sunderland W 2+ goals
59%
Sunderland W 3+ goals
32%
Birmingham City W 1+ goals
78%
Birmingham City W 2+ goals
44%
Birmingham City W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sunderland W (draw refunded)
63%
Birmingham City W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland W at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Birmingham City W away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland W attack 2.56 + Birmingham City W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.00

Birmingham City W attack 1.89 + Sunderland W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sunderland W scores more
49%
level
22%
Birmingham City W scores more
29%

Sunderland W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sunderland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sunderland W vs Birmingham City W

Birmingham City W beat Sunderland W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Eppleton Colliery Football Ground in Hetton-le-Hole, Tyne and Wear.