Birmingham City W 1–1 Sunderland W: Result & Stats

Birmingham City W

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sunderland W

1/30/2022

FA Women's Cup · 4th RoundSt Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Birmingham City W31%

×Draw21%

Sunderland W49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Birmingham City WExpected goals in this matchSunderland W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.20

Birmingham City W

1.73

Sunderland W

2.20

Sunderland W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

2.60

creates per match

3.00

1.40

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Birmingham City W

2.60

Sunderland W

3.00

allows per match

Birmingham City W

1.40

Sunderland W

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham City W+0.00on par

Sunderland W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham City W ↓

Sunderland W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Birmingham City W or draw

51%

Birmingham City W or Sunderland W

79%

Draw or Sunderland W

69%

Winning margin

Birmingham City W wins by 2+

15%

Sunderland W wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Birmingham City W 1+ goals

82%

Birmingham City W 2+ goals

52%

Birmingham City W 3+ goals

25%

Sunderland W 1+ goals

89%

Sunderland W 2+ goals

64%

Sunderland W 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Birmingham City W (draw refunded)

39%

Sunderland W (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham City W at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Sunderland W away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham City W attack 2.60 + Sunderland W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sunderland W attack 3.00 + Birmingham City W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Birmingham City W scores more

31%

level

21%

Sunderland W scores more

49%

Sunderland W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sunderland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Birmingham City W 1–1 Sunderland W

Birmingham City W and Sunderland W drew 1-1 in FA Women's Cup on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at St Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham.

Birmingham City W vs Sunderland W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Women's Cup: Birmingham City W 1–1 Sunderland W