Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sunderland vs Swansea — Premier League 2026

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Swansea
Swansea
K. Naughton 45+2'
Llorente 9'
5/13/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 37Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Sunderland42%
×Draw27%
Swansea31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.38
Swansea
1.14

Sunderland creates 21% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 74 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.07
Swansea
0.93

allows per match

Sunderland
1.34
Swansea
1.69

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par
Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
69%
Sunderland or Swansea
73%
Draw or Swansea
58%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
20%
Swansea wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
75%
Sunderland 2+ goals
40%
Sunderland 3+ goals
16%
Swansea 1+ goals
68%
Swansea 2+ goals
32%
Swansea 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
58%
Swansea (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.07 + Swansea defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

Swansea attack 0.93 + Sunderland defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sunderland scores more
42%
level
27%
Swansea scores more
31%

Sunderland at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
K. NaughtonSwanseaSwansea · D
8.1

Match Events

9'
Llorente↳ G. Sigurðsson
20'
D. Gibson← J. Denayer
37'
W. Khazri← V. Anichebe
45+2'
K. Naughton↳ Sung-Yeung Ki
58'
Sebastian Larsson
67'
L. Fer← Sung-Yeung Ki
77'
J. Cork← L. Britton
78'
Wahbi Khazri
84'
Darron Gibson
86'
Fabio Borini
89'
L. Narsingh← Llorente

Possession

52%Sunderland

Shots

13Sunderland

Pass accuracy

51%Sunderland

Statistics

SunderlandSwansea
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots3
8Corners4
13Fouls6
Shots
13Total Shots3
4On Target3
6Off Target0
3Blocked0
9Inside Box2
4Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
441Total Passes400
364Accurate Passes322
83%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls6
4Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Sunderland vs Swansea

Swansea beat Sunderland 2-0 in Premier League on May 13, 2017.

Goals: Llorente (9'), K. Naughton (45+2').

Sunderland controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.