Sunderland 1–1 Swansea: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Swansea

J. Defoe 62'

B. Gomis 45+3'

8/22/2015

Premier League · Round 3Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Sunderland42%

×Draw27%

Swansea31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.14

Sunderland

1.38

Swansea

1.14

Sunderland creates 21% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 74 away

1.07

creates per match

0.93

1.34

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Sunderland

1.07

Swansea

0.93

allows per match

Sunderland

1.34

Swansea

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par

Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

69%

Sunderland or Swansea

73%

Draw or Swansea

58%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

20%

Swansea wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

75%

Sunderland 2+ goals

40%

Sunderland 3+ goals

16%

Swansea 1+ goals

68%

Swansea 2+ goals

32%

Swansea 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

58%

Swansea (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.07 + Swansea defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

Swansea attack 0.93 + Sunderland defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sunderland scores more

42%

level

27%

Swansea scores more

31%

Sunderland at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Shelvey

Swansea · M

8.1

Match Events

18'

Jeremain Lens

21'

Lee Cattermole

45+3'

B. Gomis↳ K. Naughton

47'

Sebastián Coates

54'

André Ayew

62'

J. Defoe↳ J. Lens

67'

S. Fletcher← D. Graham

76'

Éder← B. Gomis

82'

86'

90'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandSwansea

Overview

39%Possession61%

10Total Shots20

3Corners4

0Fouls0

Shots

10Total Shots20

2On Target9

5Off Target6

3Blocked5

4Inside Box10

6Outside Box10

Passing

39%Possession61%

318Total Passes494

216Accurate Passes410

68%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

Discipline

0Fouls0

4Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2