Sunderland 5–0 Southampton: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Southampton

C. Rigg 90+5'

B. Dack 48'

P. Ekwah 45', 7'

J. Clarke 1'

9/2/2023

Championship · Round 5Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sunderland41%

×Draw29%

Southampton30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.98

Sunderland

1.21

Southampton

0.98

Sunderland creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

0.92

creates per match

1.34

0.62

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sunderland

0.92

Southampton

1.34

allows per match

Sunderland

0.62

Southampton

1.50

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.08on par

Southampton+0.06on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

70%

Sunderland or Southampton

71%

Draw or Southampton

59%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

18%

Southampton wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

70%

Sunderland 2+ goals

34%

Sunderland 3+ goals

12%

Southampton 1+ goals

62%

Southampton 2+ goals

26%

Southampton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

58%

Southampton (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.62 · 5 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.50 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 0.92 + Southampton defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Southampton attack 1.34 + Sunderland defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sunderland scores more

41%

level

29%

Southampton scores more

30%

Sunderland at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

P. Ekwah

Sunderland · M

9.0

Match Events

1'

J. Clarke↳ T. Hume

7'

P. Ekwah↳ A. Ba

35'

39'

43'

45'

46'

C. Adams← S. Armstrong

46'

R. Fraser← S. Edozie

48'

B. Dack

63'

Luís Semedo← J. Bellingham

63'

A. Pritchard← B. Dack

64'

S. Charles← M. Holgate

69'

Che Adams

72'

J. Aribo← S. Mara

81'

C. Alcaraz← W. Smallbone

82'

C. Rigg← A. Ba

82'

J. Bennette← J. Clarke

90+5'

C. Rigg↳ J. Bennette

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandSouthampton

Overview

32%Possession68%

18Total Shots13

1.94Expected Goals (xG)0.84

5Corners8

20Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots13

10On Target2

4Off Target7

4Blocked4

10Inside Box6

8Outside Box7

Passing

32%Possession68%

253Total Passes567

198Accurate Passes497

78%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

20Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1

Championship: Sunderland 5–0 Southampton

Sunderland beat Southampton 5-0 in Championship on September 2, 2023.

Goals: J. Clarke (1'), P. Ekwah (7', 45'), B. Dack (48'), C. Rigg (90+5').

Southampton controlled possession (68%) and registered 13 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.

Sunderland vs Southampton — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Sunderland 5–0 Southampton