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Southampton vs Sunderland — Championship 2025

Southampton
Southampton
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Sunderland
Sunderland
J. Rothwell 80', 77'
A. Armstrong 37' (pen)
S. Armstrong 9'
J. Bellingham 71'
R. Mundle 62'
3/9/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Southampton53%
×Draw26%
Sunderland21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Southampton
1.48
Sunderland
0.81

Southampton creates 83% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Southampton
1.57
Sunderland
0.68

allows per match

Southampton
0.93
Sunderland
1.40

finishing

Southampton+0.24scores more
Sunderland+0.32scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Southampton or draw
79%
Southampton or Sunderland
74%
Draw or Sunderland
47%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+
27%
Sunderland wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals
77%
Southampton 2+ goals
43%
Southampton 3+ goals
19%
Sunderland 1+ goals
56%
Sunderland 2+ goals
19%
Sunderland 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)
72%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 16 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.57 + Sunderland defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sunderland attack 0.68 + Southampton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Southampton scores more
53%
level
26%
Sunderland scores more
21%

Southampton at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
J. RothwellSouthamptonSouthampton · M
9.3

Match Events

8'
Jenson Seelt
9'
S. Armstrong
31'
Daniel Ballard
37'
A. ArmstrongPenalty
57'
A. Aouchiche← C. Rigg
57'
N. Rusyn← M. Burstow
58'
J. Aribo← W. Smallbone
58'
K. Sulemana← D. Brooks
62'
R. Mundle↳ D. Neil
64'
Leo Fuhr Hjelde
71'
C. Styles← D. Ballard
71'
J. Bellingham
73'
J. Rothwell← S. Armstrong
73'
J. Bree← J. Stephens
77'
J. Rothwell
80'
J. Rothwell
84'
S. Mara← C. Adams
88'
P. Ekwah← R. Mundle
90+6'
Joe Rothwell
90'
Joe Aribo

Possession

61%Southampton

Shots

21Southampton

Pass accuracy

52%Southampton

Statistics

SouthamptonSunderland
Overview
61%Possession39%
21Total Shots13
3.20Expected Goals (xG)0.60
6Corners2
13Fouls15
Shots
21Total Shots13
10On Target5
5Off Target6
6Blocked2
16Inside Box6
5Outside Box7
Passing
61%Possession39%
574Total Passes355
486Accurate Passes276
85%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Championship: Southampton 4–2 Sunderland

Southampton beat Sunderland 4-2 in Championship on March 9, 2024.

Goals: S. Armstrong (9'), A. Armstrong (37' pen), R. Mundle (62'), J. Bellingham (71'), J. Rothwell (77', 80').

Southampton controlled possession (61%) and registered 21 shots to 13.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton, Hampshire.