Sunderland 3–2 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Shrewsbury

N. Broadhead 90+2', 13'

E. Embleton 4'

T. Flanagan 58'

J. Vela 50'

4/15/2022

League One · Round 43Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sunderland54%

×Draw25%

Shrewsbury21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.90

Sunderland

1.61

Shrewsbury

0.90

Sunderland creates 79% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 152 away

1.83

creates per match

0.86

0.93

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Sunderland

1.83

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Sunderland

0.93

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

79%

Sunderland or Shrewsbury

75%

Draw or Shrewsbury

46%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

29%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

80%

Sunderland 2+ goals

48%

Sunderland 3+ goals

22%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

59%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

23%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

72%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.61

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Sunderland defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sunderland scores more

54%

level

25%

Shrewsbury scores more

21%

Sunderland at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

N. Broadhead

Sunderland · F

8.2

Match Events

4'

13'

22'

28'

37'

J. Daniels← E. Bennett

50'

J. Vela↳ G. Nurse

58'

T. Flanagan

62'

C. Evans← E. Embleton

79'

79'

86'

88'

88'

T. Bloxham← S. Whalley

90+6'

Josh Vela

90+1'

Ryan Bowman

90+2'

N. Broadhead↳ J. Clarke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandShrewsbury

Overview

69%Possession31%

18Total Shots9

4Corners2

6Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots9

7On Target3

5Off Target5

6Blocked1

7Inside Box7

11Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

583Total Passes254

469Accurate Passes161

80%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3