Sunderland 1–0 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shrewsbury

C. Wyke 18'

1/23/2021

League One · Round 25Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sunderland54%

×Draw25%

Shrewsbury21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.90

Sunderland

1.61

Shrewsbury

0.90

Sunderland creates 79% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 152 away

1.83

creates per match

0.86

0.93

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Sunderland

1.83

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Sunderland

0.93

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

79%

Sunderland or Shrewsbury

75%

Draw or Shrewsbury

46%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

29%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

80%

Sunderland 2+ goals

48%

Sunderland 3+ goals

22%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

59%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

23%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

72%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.61

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Sunderland defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sunderland scores more

54%

level

25%

Shrewsbury scores more

21%

Sunderland at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Wyke

Sunderland · F

7.7

Match Events

18'

C. Wyke↳ A. McGeady

28'

Aiden McGeady

66'

R. Sears← R. Williams

67'

C. Maguire← J. Diamond

74'

Aaron Pierre

76'

Grant Leadbitter

78'

S. Goss← L. Clarke

81'

C. Winchester← A. McGeady

88'

L. O'Nien← J. Scowen

89'

D. Udoh← D. Love

90'

Josh Vela

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandShrewsbury

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots9

5Corners3

14Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots9

2On Target1

7Off Target5

2Blocked3

6Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

400Total Passes336

280Accurate Passes209

70%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3