Sunderland 3–0 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Rochdale

L. Gooch 32', 11'

E. O'Connell 15' (OG)

2/11/2020

League One · Round 33Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Sunderland53%

×Draw23%

Rochdale24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.16

Sunderland

1.84

Rochdale

1.16

Sunderland creates 59% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 72 away

1.83

creates per match

1.38

0.93

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Sunderland

1.83

Rochdale

1.38

allows per match

Sunderland

0.93

Rochdale

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

76%

Sunderland or Rochdale

77%

Draw or Rochdale

47%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

30%

Rochdale wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

84%

Sunderland 2+ goals

55%

Sunderland 3+ goals

28%

Rochdale 1+ goals

69%

Rochdale 2+ goals

32%

Rochdale 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

69%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.84

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Sunderland defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sunderland scores more

53%

level

23%

Rochdale scores more

24%

Sunderland at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

L. Gooch

Sunderland · F

8.6

Match Events

11'

L. Gooch↳ C. Maguire

15'

E. O'ConnellOwn goal

24'

Ian Henderson

32'

L. Gooch

40'

J. Keohane← R. Norrington-Davies

51'

A. Wilbraham← A. Morley

69'

R. McLaughlin← M. Done

72'

A. Semenyo← C. Maguire

78'

D. Watmore← L. Gooch

85'

K. Lafferty← C. Wyke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandRochdale

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots2

7Corners0

8Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots2

6On Target1

2Off Target1

4Blocked0

10Inside Box1

2Outside Box1

Passing

53%Possession47%

513Total Passes461

426Accurate Passes366

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3