Rochdale 2–2 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Rochdale

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Sunderland

M. Lund 44', 25'

B. Wright 40'

C. Wyke 15'

10/27/2020

League One · Round 9Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rochdale32%

×Draw26%

Sunderland42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.42

Rochdale

1.21

Sunderland

1.42

Sunderland creates 17% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 86 away

1.33

creates per match

1.30

1.54

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Rochdale

1.33

Sunderland

1.30

allows per match

Rochdale

1.54

Sunderland

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

58%

Rochdale or Sunderland

74%

Draw or Sunderland

68%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

13%

Sunderland wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

70%

Rochdale 2+ goals

34%

Rochdale 3+ goals

12%

Sunderland 1+ goals

76%

Sunderland 2+ goals

41%

Sunderland 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

43%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rochdale scores more

32%

level

26%

Sunderland scores more

42%

Sunderland at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Lund

Rochdale · M

8.2

Match Events

15'

C. Wyke↳ L. Gooch

21'

Ryan McLaughlin

25'

M. Lund↳ A. Newby

40'

B. Wright

44'

M. Lund↳ O. Rathbone

63'

Jimmy Ryan

75'

J. Scowen← C. Maguire

79'

Dion Sanderson

81'

M. Done← J. Ryan

82'

D. Graham← C. Wyke

88'

J. McNulty← A. Newby

90'

Oliver Rathbone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RochdaleSunderland

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots13

3Corners3

9Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots13

3On Target7

5Off Target2

5Blocked4

10Inside Box11

3Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

405Total Passes465

301Accurate Passes356

74%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2