Sunderland 1–0 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Portsmouth

W. Isidor 7'

1/5/2025

Championship · Round 26Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Sunderland53%

×Draw28%

Portsmouth20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.74

Sunderland

1.40

Portsmouth

0.74

Sunderland creates 89% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 34 away

1.25

creates per match

0.87

0.61

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Sunderland

1.25

Portsmouth

0.87

allows per match

Sunderland

0.61

Portsmouth

1.55

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Sunderland+0.13scores more

Portsmouth+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

80%

Sunderland or Portsmouth

72%

Draw or Portsmouth

47%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

26%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

75%

Sunderland 2+ goals

41%

Sunderland 3+ goals

17%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

52%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

17%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

73%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.61 · 8 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.55 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.25 + Portsmouth defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Portsmouth attack 0.87 + Sunderland defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sunderland scores more

53%

level

28%

Portsmouth scores more

20%

Sunderland at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

T. Hume

Sunderland · D

8.0

Match Events

7'

W. Isidor↳ Eliezer Mayenda

46'

58'

64'

67'

69'

T. Devlin← Z. Swanson

69'

R. Atkinson← P. Lane

80'

M. Aleksić← A. Aouchiche

87'

C. Saydee← A. Dozzell

87'

O. Moxon← F. Potts

90+2'

Chris Mepham

90+3'

N. Rusyn← Eliezer Mayenda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandPortsmouth

Overview

60%Possession40%

24Total Shots6

2.30Expected Goals (xG)0.36

7Corners3

9Fouls10

Shots

24Total Shots6

8On Target1

8Off Target4

8Blocked1

14Inside Box3

10Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

453Total Passes300

376Accurate Passes191

83%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

-0.12Goals Prevented-0.12

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0