Portsmouth 1–3 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sunderland

L. O'Nien 90+1' (OG)

R. Mundle 56'

A. Browne 51'

Z. Swanson 31' (OG)

8/31/2024

Championship · Round 4Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Portsmouth41%

×Draw28%

Sunderland31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.08

Portsmouth

1.28

Sunderland

1.08

Portsmouth creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 11 away

1.38

creates per match

0.99

1.17

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.38

Sunderland

0.99

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.17

Sunderland

1.19

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Portsmouth-0.27scores less

Sunderland+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

69%

Portsmouth or Sunderland

72%

Draw or Sunderland

59%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

18%

Sunderland wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

72%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

37%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

14%

Sunderland 1+ goals

66%

Sunderland 2+ goals

29%

Sunderland 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

57%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.17 · 35 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.19 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.38 + Sunderland defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sunderland attack 0.99 + Portsmouth defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Portsmouth scores more

41%

level

28%

Sunderland scores more

31%

Portsmouth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Browne

Sunderland · M

7.5

Match Events

31'

Z. SwansonOwn goal

44'

Chris Rigg

51'

A. Browne↳ Eliezer Mayenda

56'

R. Mundle↳ Eliezer Mayenda

60'

M. O’Mahony← M. Ritchie

60'

K. Yengi← A. Dozzell

60'

P. Lane← C. Saydee

60'

A. Kamara← S. Silvera

73'

W. Isidor← P. Roberts

73'

I. Poveda← R. Mundle

78'

Abdoulaye Kamara

79'

H. Blair← C. Lang

87'

N. Rusyn← Eliezer Mayenda

88'

Zak Swanson

90+2'

Kusini Yengi

90+1'

L. O'NienOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthSunderland

Overview

55%Possession45%

6Total Shots11

0.37Expected Goals (xG)1.99

4Corners5

14Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots11

2On Target4

2Off Target3

2Blocked4

3Inside Box8

3Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

469Total Passes390

402Accurate Passes313

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.70Goals Prevented-0.70

Discipline

14Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1