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Sunderland vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

Sunderland
Sunderlandadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
5/11/2019League OneLeague One · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsStadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sunderland45%
×Draw26%
Portsmouth29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.47
Portsmouth
1.12

Sunderland creates 31% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 134 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.83
Portsmouth
1.34

allows per match

Sunderland
0.90
Portsmouth
1.10

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par
Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
71%
Sunderland or Portsmouth
74%
Draw or Portsmouth
55%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
22%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
77%
Sunderland 2+ goals
43%
Sunderland 3+ goals
18%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
67%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
31%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
61%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.90 · 92 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.47

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Sunderland defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sunderland scores more
45%
level
26%
Portsmouth scores more
29%

Sunderland at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sunderland vs Portsmouth

Sunderland beat Portsmouth 1-0 in League One on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.