Sunderland 1–0 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Peterborough

G. Leadbitter 81' (pen)

9/26/2020

League One · Round 3Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sunderland48%

×Draw24%

Peterborough28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.20

Sunderland

1.65

Peterborough

1.20

Sunderland creates 38% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 157 away

1.83

creates per match

1.46

0.93

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Sunderland

1.83

Peterborough

1.46

allows per match

Sunderland

0.93

Peterborough

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

72%

Sunderland or Peterborough

76%

Draw or Peterborough

52%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

25%

Peterborough wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

81%

Sunderland 2+ goals

49%

Sunderland 3+ goals

23%

Peterborough 1+ goals

70%

Peterborough 2+ goals

34%

Peterborough 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

63%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.65

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Sunderland defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sunderland scores more

48%

level

24%

Peterborough scores more

28%

Sunderland at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

G. Leadbitter

Sunderland · M

8.3

Match Events

6'

Josh Scowen

39'

A. O'Brien← C. Maguire

62'

Aiden O'Brien

71'

D. Graham← C. Wyke

71'

J. Ward← R. Broom

81'

G. LeadbitterPenalty

84'

Lynden Gooch

86'

R. Jade-Jones← S. Szmodics

90+4'

C. McLaughlin← L. Gooch

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandPeterborough

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots12

8Corners7

18Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots12

2On Target6

5Off Target4

2Blocked2

8Inside Box6

1Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

373Total Passes389

311Accurate Passes315

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0