Peterborough 3–0 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Peterborough

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sunderland

M. Maddison 64', 36'

J. Knight 52'

8/31/2019

League One · Round 6Weston Homes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Peterborough43%

×Draw26%

Sunderland32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeterboroughExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.23

Peterborough

1.48

Sunderland

1.23

Peterborough creates 20% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 86 away

1.88

creates per match

1.30

1.17

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Peterborough

1.88

Sunderland

1.30

allows per match

Peterborough

1.17

Sunderland

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peterborough+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peterborough ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Peterborough or draw

68%

Peterborough or Sunderland

74%

Draw or Sunderland

57%

Winning margin

Peterborough wins by 2+

21%

Sunderland wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Peterborough 1+ goals

77%

Peterborough 2+ goals

43%

Peterborough 3+ goals

19%

Sunderland 1+ goals

71%

Sunderland 2+ goals

35%

Sunderland 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Peterborough (draw refunded)

58%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peterborough at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.17 · 157 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peterborough attack 1.88 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Peterborough defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Peterborough scores more

43%

level

26%

Sunderland scores more

32%

Peterborough at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Maddison

Peterborough · M

8.8

Match Events

30'

36'

51'

52'

57'

63'

63'

64'

71'

74'

T. Flanagan← M. McNulty

77'

Charlie Wyke

77'

Charlie Wyke

78'

G. Dobson← A. McGeady

81'

H. Burrows← J. Knight

84'

Max Power

84'

N. Thompson← N. Mason

89'

Grant Leadbitter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeterboroughSunderland

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots8

2Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots8

4On Target1

5Off Target3

1Blocked4

7Inside Box4

3Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

370Total Passes359

272Accurate Passes259

74%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards2

1Offsides0