Sunderland 0–2 Leicester: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

J. Vardy 90+5', 66'

4/10/2016

Premier League · Round 33Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sunderland35%

×Draw24%

Leicester41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.59

Sunderland

1.47

Leicester

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

1.06

creates per match

1.98

1.20

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Sunderland

1.06

Leicester

1.98

allows per match

Sunderland

1.20

Leicester

1.87

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.26scores more

Leicester+0.02on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

59%

Sunderland or Leicester

76%

Draw or Leicester

65%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

17%

Leicester wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

77%

Sunderland 2+ goals

43%

Sunderland 3+ goals

18%

Leicester 1+ goals

80%

Leicester 2+ goals

47%

Leicester 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

47%

Leicester (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.20 · 19 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.87 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.06 + Leicester defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.47

Leicester attack 1.98 + Sunderland defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sunderland scores more

35%

level

24%

Leicester scores more

41%

Leicester at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Vardy

Leicester · F

9.1

Match Events

21'

Fabio Borini

30'

Christian Fuchs

62'

L. Ulloa← S. Okazaki

66'

J. Vardy↳ D. Drinkwater

68'

68'

76'

81'

84'

D. Amartey← M. Albrighton

90+5'

J. Vardy↳ D. Gray

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandLeicester

Overview

44%Possession56%

15Total Shots16

1Corners7

0Fouls0

Shots

15Total Shots16

1On Target7

8Off Target7

6Blocked2

8Inside Box12

7Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

339Total Passes408

229Accurate Passes289

68%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

0Fouls0

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1