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Leicester vs Sunderland — Premier League 2026

Leicester
Leicester
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sunderland
Sunderland
4/4/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Leicester45%
×Draw26%
Sunderland30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester
1.50
Sunderland
1.18

Leicester creates 27% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

creates per match

Leicester
1.33
Sunderland
0.97

allows per match

Leicester
1.39
Sunderland
1.66

finishing

Leicester-0.19scores less
Sunderland-0.08on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Leicester or draw
70%
Leicester or Sunderland
74%
Draw or Sunderland
55%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+
22%
Sunderland wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals
78%
Leicester 2+ goals
44%
Leicester 3+ goals
19%
Sunderland 1+ goals
69%
Sunderland 2+ goals
33%
Sunderland 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)
60%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.66 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.33 + Sunderland defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sunderland attack 0.97 + Leicester defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leicester scores more
45%
level
26%
Sunderland scores more
30%

Leicester at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Leicester 2–0 Sunderland

Leicester beat Sunderland 2-0 in Premier League on April 4, 2017.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester.