Sunderland 1–0 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gillingham

N. Broadhead 90+5'

4/2/2022

League One · Round 41Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sunderland50%

×Draw25%

Gillingham25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.05

Sunderland

1.60

Gillingham

1.05

Sunderland creates 52% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 99 away

1.83

creates per match

1.17

0.93

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Sunderland

1.83

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Sunderland

0.93

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

75%

Sunderland or Gillingham

75%

Draw or Gillingham

50%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

26%

Gillingham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

80%

Sunderland 2+ goals

47%

Sunderland 3+ goals

22%

Gillingham 1+ goals

65%

Gillingham 2+ goals

28%

Gillingham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

67%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Sunderland defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sunderland scores more

50%

level

25%

Gillingham scores more

25%

Sunderland at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. Clarke

Sunderland · M

7.7

Match Events

38'

40'

41'

45+3'

68'

E. Embleton← L. ONien

68'

L. Gooch← C. Winchester

69'

N. Broadhead← A. Pritchard

73'

B. Reeves← J. Chambers

78'

Ben Reeves

90+6'

Nathan Broadhead

90'

B. Akehurst← C. Kelman

90+5'

N. Broadhead↳ E. Embleton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandGillingham

Overview

80%Possession20%

25Total Shots5

8Corners1

12Fouls13

Shots

25Total Shots5

5On Target0

9Off Target2

11Blocked3

11Inside Box3

14Outside Box2

Passing

80%Possession20%

612Total Passes155

511Accurate Passes56

83%Pass Accuracy36%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0