Gillingham 0–2 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sunderland

L. Gooch 90+4'

C. Maguire 84' (pen)

10/31/2020

League One · Round 10Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Gillingham31%

×Draw27%

Sunderland43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.39

Gillingham

1.14

Sunderland

1.39

Sunderland creates 22% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 86 away

1.19

creates per match

1.30

1.48

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Sunderland

1.30

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Sunderland

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

57%

Gillingham or Sunderland

73%

Draw or Sunderland

69%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

12%

Sunderland wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

68%

Gillingham 2+ goals

32%

Gillingham 3+ goals

11%

Sunderland 1+ goals

75%

Sunderland 2+ goals

40%

Sunderland 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

42%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gillingham scores more

31%

level

27%

Sunderland scores more

43%

Sunderland at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Maguire

Sunderland · M

8.3

Match Events

23'

Lynden Gooch

40'

Ryan Jackson

61'

Alex MacDonald

66'

S. Robertson← D. Samuel

70'

J. Akinde← V. Oliver

70'

D. Graham← A. OBrien

80'

C. Maguire← J. Scowen

84'

C. MaguirePenalty

87'

T. Coyle← J. Graham

90+4'

L. Gooch↳ C. Maguire

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamSunderland

Overview

38%Possession62%

7Total Shots20

8Corners4

15Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots20

1On Target3

4Off Target8

2Blocked9

5Inside Box15

2Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

277Total Passes434

172Accurate Passes329

62%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1