Sunderland 1–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Sunderland

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bristol Rovers

C. Maguire 82'

L. Leahy 3' (pen)

9/12/2020

League One · Round 1Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sunderland56%

×Draw24%

Bristol Rovers21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SunderlandExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.94

Sunderland

1.72

Bristol Rovers

0.94

Sunderland creates 83% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 131 away

1.83

creates per match

0.95

0.93

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Sunderland

1.83

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Sunderland

0.93

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw

79%

Sunderland or Bristol Rovers

76%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

44%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+

31%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals

82%

Sunderland 2+ goals

51%

Sunderland 3+ goals

25%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

61%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

24%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)

73%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.72

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Sunderland defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sunderland scores more

56%

level

24%

Bristol Rovers scores more

21%

Sunderland at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Maguire

Sunderland · F

9.0

Match Events

3'

L. LeahyPenalty

11'

21'

55'

67'

67'

C. Hargreaves← S. Nicholson

73'

78'

78'

82'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SunderlandBristol

Overview

71%Possession29%

25Total Shots5

11Corners3

8Fouls10

Shots

25Total Shots5

8On Target2

11Off Target1

6Blocked2

18Inside Box4

7Outside Box1

Passing

71%Possession29%

538Total Passes222

415Accurate Passes111

77%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0