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Bristol Rovers vs Sunderland — League One 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sunderland
Sunderland
3/10/2020League OneLeague One · Round 18Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Bristol Rovers32%
×Draw27%
Sunderland41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.15
Sunderland
1.32

Sunderland creates 15% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 86 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.20
Sunderland
1.30

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.34
Sunderland
1.09

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
59%
Bristol Rovers or Sunderland
73%
Draw or Sunderland
68%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
13%
Sunderland wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
68%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
32%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
11%
Sunderland 1+ goals
73%
Sunderland 2+ goals
38%
Sunderland 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
44%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
32%
level
27%
Sunderland scores more
41%

Sunderland at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Bristol Rovers 2–0 Sunderland

Bristol Rovers beat Sunderland 2-0 in League One on March 10, 2020.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.