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Sunderland vs Blackpool — League One 2018

Sunderland
Sunderland
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Blackpool
Blackpool
C. Wyke 37'
M. Virtue-Thick 4'
12/14/2019League OneLeague One · Round 21Stadium of Light

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sunderland49%
×Draw26%
Blackpool25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunderland
1.52
Blackpool
1.02

Sunderland creates 49% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 134 away

creates per match

Sunderland
1.83
Blackpool
1.11

allows per match

Sunderland
0.93
Blackpool
1.20

finishing

Sunderland+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunderland ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sunderland or draw
75%
Sunderland or Blackpool
74%
Draw or Blackpool
51%

Winning margin

Sunderland wins by 2+
25%
Blackpool wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sunderland 1+ goals
78%
Sunderland 2+ goals
45%
Sunderland 3+ goals
20%
Blackpool 1+ goals
64%
Blackpool 2+ goals
27%
Blackpool 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sunderland (draw refunded)
66%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunderland at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.93 · 88 matches

Blackpool away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunderland attack 1.83 + Blackpool defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Blackpool attack 1.11 + Sunderland defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sunderland scores more
49%
level
26%
Blackpool scores more
25%

Sunderland at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. SpearingBlackpoolBlackpool · M
7.8

Match Events

4'
M. Virtue-Thick
37'
C. Wyke↳ C. Maguire
45'
George Dobson
45'
Armand Gnanduillet
46'
S. Scannell← S. Kaikai
59'
Tom Flanagan
72'
L. Gooch← D. Watmore
74'
George Dobson
74'
George Dobson
78'
W. Grigg← C. Wyke
80'
J. Nuttall← N. Delfouneso
82'
Lynden Gooch
82'
Curtis Tilt
84'
G. Leadbitter← C. Maguire
89'
J. Thompson← M. Virtue-Thick
90'
Liam Feeney

Possession

52%Sunderland

Shots

8Sunderland

Pass accuracy

51%Sunderland

Statistics

SunderlandBlackpool
Overview
52%Possession48%
8Total Shots11
7Corners4
10Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots11
2On Target4
4Off Target5
2Blocked2
7Inside Box8
1Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
401Total Passes358
312Accurate Passes267
78%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls13
4Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Sunderland vs Blackpool

Sunderland and Blackpool drew 1-1 in League One on December 14, 2019.

Goals: M. Virtue-Thick (4'), C. Wyke (37').

Sunderland controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.