Blackpool 1–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Blackpool

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sunderland

S. Lavery 21'

R. Stewart 66'

1/1/2023

Championship · Round 26Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Blackpool34%

×Draw28%

Sunderland38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.25

Blackpool

1.16

Sunderland

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 76 away

1.23

creates per match

1.24

1.27

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Blackpool

1.23

Sunderland

1.24

allows per match

Blackpool

1.27

Sunderland

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

62%

Blackpool or Sunderland

72%

Draw or Sunderland

66%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

14%

Sunderland wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

69%

Blackpool 2+ goals

32%

Blackpool 3+ goals

11%

Sunderland 1+ goals

71%

Sunderland 2+ goals

36%

Sunderland 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

47%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.08 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Sunderland defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sunderland attack 1.24 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Blackpool scores more

34%

level

28%

Sunderland scores more

38%

Sunderland at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

C. Patino

Blackpool · M

7.7

Match Events

8'

Callum Connolly

19'

Édouard Michut

21'

S. Lavery↳ C. Hamilton

28'

Ian Carlo Poveda

62'

A. Ba← É. Michut

66'

71'

72'

73'

73'

J. Beesley← C. Hamilton

80'

K. Dougall← C. Patino

85'

Jake Beesley

89'

C. Wright← I. Poveda-Ocampo

90+2'

Callum Connolly

90+2'

Callum Connolly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolSunderland

Overview

33%Possession67%

6Total Shots18

1Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots18

2On Target5

2Off Target4

2Blocked9

4Inside Box17

2Outside Box1

Passing

33%Possession67%

241Total Passes490

148Accurate Passes386

61%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Championship: Blackpool 1–1 Sunderland

Blackpool and Sunderland drew 1-1 in Championship on January 1, 2023.

Goals: S. Lavery (21'), R. Stewart (66').

Sunderland controlled possession (67%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.

Blackpool vs Sunderland — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Blackpool 1–1 Sunderland